04-04-2008 19:59

I find if funny that you read one article and see it as the only view point here. If you go back last week you\'ll read that we posted a June 2008 release date for the new iPhone. 
 
Here\'s the link. 
http://www.macmod.com/content/view/1290/236/ 
 
What I was trying show here is that it is highly possible that the supply is low because of higher than expected sales of the iPhone in the last 92 days of 2007. It was almost twice the amount of all previous quarters, nearly 1 million phones more than they expected. 
 
Further math.  
 
If Apple had based it\'s production order of first gen iPhones based on standard sales (about 13,500 per day), then the iPhone supply would have lasted another 70 some days until it would have hit this point of iPhones available. If they assumed a high holiday season at 17,500 per day it still would have given about another 55 days. 
 
70 some days past April 1st (just for a date) would put it right in the middle of June. 55 days would put it at the end of May. So the supply shortage probably won\'t be filled by the 1st gen iPhone, but the supply shortage was not caused by the planned release of the iPhone. 
 
Is there some math I missed or some logic that I mis-interpreted, please let me know.

Registered

04-04-2008 18:35

Uhh they are analysts. They get paid to speculate. Of course most will be wrong. Analysts are the same people you see at half time or the pregame show talking about how well a team is going to do. They don't know any FACTS, they only give you their best guess. However, for their best guess, they get paid money for. 
 
Statistics are NOT facts. If they were, the word statistic would not exist. 
 
Jeff, you really need to pay attention. There ARE sites that are "rumoring" that new iphones are coming really soon. 
 
http://www.macrumors.com/2008/04/02/iphone-shortage-points-to-new-model/ 
 
Check you "facts" before you go off half cocked. You look like an idiot.

Guest

04-04-2008 15:39

Large banks are talking to suppliers who are indicating target dates in May vs. June. 
 
Maybe it will come early, maybe not, but your one source doesn't over-turn a variety of other sources that provide different evidence.

Guest

04-04-2008 15:35

So the multiple analysts predicting the arrival of the phone are wrong? Nobody said that the iPhone was expected to arrive this month, just that it would be coming soon. We were all expecting it in May or June at the earliest anyway. 
 
But thank you! 
I think all us consumers should count their blessings that we have you to set the record straight!

Guest